Quarterly Publication

Document Type : Original Article


1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Accounting and Management, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran.


The escalating annual insurance costs nationwide have sparked a growing interest among insurance industry managers and policymakers in analyzing insurance data to forecast future costs. Accurately predicting the number of claims and implementing appropriate policies can help mitigate potential losses for insurance companies and customers. This study focuses on predicting the amount of customer claims and utilizes data from 128 individuals insured by Iran insurance company. The dataset includes various attributes such as the age of the vehicle owner, type of car, age of the car itself, number of claims, and the corresponding claim amounts (measured in 10,000 Tomans) recorded in the year 1400. All features, except the claim amount (the target variable), were discretized into ordinal variables to ensure accurate analysis and address any outliers or data inconsistencies. Multiple linear regression was employed to predict the target variable, enabling an investigation into the influence of each feature on estimating the claim amount. The data analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS MODELER software, allowing for a comprehensive examination of the assumptions associated with the regression model. By leveraging this approach, insurance industry stakeholders can gain valuable insights into predicting claim amounts and make informed decisions to optimize their operations and minimize potential financial risks.


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